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Méthode d’estimation des valeurs extrêmes des distributions de contraintes induites et de seuils de susceptibilité dans le cadre des études de durcissement et de vulnérabilité aux menaces électromagnétiques intentionnelles

Abstract : Intentional ElectroMagnetic Interference (IEMI) can cause equipment failure. The study of the effects of an IEMI begins with an assessment of the risk of equipment failure in order to implement appropriate protections, if required. Unfortunately, a deterministic prediction of a failure is impossible because both characteristics of equipment and of the aggression are very uncertain. The proposed strategy consists of modelling the stress generated by the aggression, as well as the susceptibility of the equipment, as random variables. Then, three steps are necessary: The first step deals with the estimation of the probability distribution of the random susceptibility variable. The second step deals with the similar estimation for the constraint / stress then that of the stress. Eventually, the third step concerns the calculation of the probability of failure. For the first step, we use statistical inference methods on a small sample of measured susceptibility thresholds. We compare two types of parametric inference: bayesian and maximum likelihood. We conclude that a relevant approach for a risk analysis is to use the confidence or credibility intervals of parameter estimates to frame the probability of failure, regardless of the inference method chosen. For the second step we explore extreme value exploration techniques while reducing the number of simulations required. In particular, we propose the technique of Controlled Stratification by Kriging. We show that this technique drastically improves performance compared to the classic approach (Monte Carlo simulation). In addition, we propose a particular implementation of this technique in order to control the calculation effort. Finally, the third step is the simplest once the first two steps have been completed since, by definition, a failure occurs when the stress is greater than the susceptibility. With the help of a final test case comprising the simulation of an electromagnetic aggression on a piece of equipment, we use the method developed in our work to estimate the frame of the probability of failure, More specifically, we show that the combined use of controlled stratification by kriging and inference of susceptibility distribution, allows to frame the estimated true value of the probability of failure.
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  • HAL Id : tel-02521324, version 1

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Thomas Houret. Méthode d’estimation des valeurs extrêmes des distributions de contraintes induites et de seuils de susceptibilité dans le cadre des études de durcissement et de vulnérabilité aux menaces électromagnétiques intentionnelles. Electromagnétisme. INSA de Rennes, 2019. Français. ⟨NNT : 2019ISAR0011⟩. ⟨tel-02521324⟩

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