Évaluation probabiliste de la fiabilité structurelle des digues fluviales à partir du jugement d’expert

Abstract : River levees as protective measures against flooding are a matter of utmost strategic importance for the security of people and property. A better knowledge of their structural reliability is a major challenge for engineers and managers of these structures in order to meet current regulations and potentially develop them. In France, the regulations relating to the safety of hydraulic structures require the realization of hazard studies, in which probabilistic safety evaluation procedures take on a more and more important role. Due to the complexity of their failure mechanisms and the lack of a specific condition of limit-state for some failure mechanisms such as internal erosion and overtopping or scour, calculating a probability of failure by quantitative approaches remains impossible to this day. Levees induce specific problems in evaluating their structural reliability where expert intervention is necessary and pivotal. They must interpret the available data and take into account the uncertainties in their analysis, in order to evaluate the structural reliability of levees in terms of probability of failure. The aim of the thesis is to develop and elaborate a complete approach for supporting probabilistic evaluation of structural reliability of levees based on expert judgments. It is designed as a scientifically justified approach to collect and use uncertain but quantitative expert evaluations of structural reliability, in the form of a failure probability or a safety factor, accompanied by a margin of probabilistic uncertainty. To meet this goal, two approaches have been developed, "EiCAD" and "EiDA" composed of the following phases (in different orders):-individual elicitation phase of expert judgment (Ei) allowing the collection of probabilistic expert evaluations by a constricted questionnaire ;-calibration phase (C) to weigh the probabilistic expert evaluations elicited depending on the degrees of precision and accuracy that can be provided;-aggregation phase (A) during which the probabilistic expert evaluations elicited by several experts are taken into account ;-debiasing phase (D) during which biases that may affect the probabilistic expert evaluations are removed. The developed approaches have been implemented for the cases of Drac levees, located in the Grenoble agglomeration, to assess the probability of failure, by expert judgment, with regard to sliding and internal erosion mechanism of failure
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Michel Hathout. Évaluation probabiliste de la fiabilité structurelle des digues fluviales à partir du jugement d’expert. Architecture, aménagement de l'espace. Université Paris-Est, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018PESC1005⟩. ⟨tel-01880424⟩

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